Grand Junction · 2027 Medicare costs

How Much Will Medicare Part B Cost per Month in 2027?

The Medicare Trustees' own estimate is $209.50 a month, $6.60 more than this year, with the deductible headed to $292. Here is where that number comes from, how close the same estimate has landed the last three years, what the rest of the 2027 cost sheet looks like, and why the final figure will arrive in the middle of Open Enrollment without changing what a Mesa County household should do about its plan.

Medicare On Main Data Desk

Published September 26, 2026 · 9 min read · Reviewed by Brian Penner, 22+ years in Medicare

Every September the same question comes across my desk in Grand Junction, usually from someone building a 2027 budget: "What's Part B going to be next year?" The honest answer is that nobody knows the final number yet, and the useful answer is that the people who run the trust funds have already put their estimate in writing. It is public, it is specific, and over the last few years it has been close. Below is that estimate, the track record behind it, the rest of the 2027 cost sheet from the same report, and the part that actually matters for the 41,709 people on Medicare in Mesa County: what to do with a number that is not quite set yet.

Where the $209.50 comes from

Each year the Boards of Trustees of the Medicare trust funds file a report with Congress. The 2026 report, in the section on Part B's financial status, states it in one sentence: "In 2026 the monthly Part B premium rate is $202.90, which is higher than the 2025 monthly premium of $185.00. The estimated monthly premium for 2027 is $209.50." The report explains what the premium has to do: it is "paid by affected enrollees and Medicaid and matched by general fund transfers," and it "would maintain a contingency reserve at the level necessary to accommodate typical financial variation, plus the possibility of legislative action that would raise costs after the establishment of financing rates."

In plain English, the standard premium is set to cover roughly a quarter of what Part B is expected to spend per enrollee next year, plus a cushion. The Trustees' actuaries estimate that spending in the spring; CMS's actuaries finalize it in the fall with a few more months of claims data in hand. The two numbers usually land close together, which is why the summer estimate is worth reading.

Sources: 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 Medicare Trustees Reports (§ III.C2 of each); CMS 2026 fact sheet for the premiums set.

Three years is a short record, but it points one way: a dime low for 2024, exact for 2025, and $3.30 high for 2026, when the Trustees said $206.20 and CMS announced $202.90. If 2027 follows the pattern, $209.50 is a reasonable planning number and a slightly conservative one. What it is not is a promise. The report's own footnote on the Part B tables says the projected values "are estimates, and the actual amounts are likely to be somewhat different as experience emerges."

The full 2027 cost sheet, estimate by estimate

The premium gets the headlines, but the same report carries the rest of next year's cost sharing in two appendix tables. Some rows are projections; the Part D rows are already set, because CMS finalized the 2027 deductible and out-of-pocket cap in its April 6, 2026 rate announcement and released the $41.33 base premium on July 28, 2026. The status column tells you which is which.

Sources: 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, Tables V.E1 and V.E2 (intermediate assumptions); CMS 2026 fact sheet for the 2026 Part A and Part B amounts.

Two rows deserve a sentence each. The Part B deductible matters to everyone on Original Medicare with a Plan G or Plan N supplement, because those plans leave it for you to pay: $292 would be the first money out of pocket for doctor visits and outpatient care in 2027. And the Part A hospital deductible, projected at $1,788 per benefit period, is the figure a Medicare Advantage member should hold next to their plan's inpatient copays when comparing 2027 offerings this fall, since an Advantage plan replaces Medicare's cost sharing with its own.

Why 70% of people will feel it less than the number suggests

Most retirees never write a check for Part B; it comes out of the Social Security deposit. That is where a rule called hold-harmless lives. The Trustees describe it this way: "there is a hold-harmless provision in the law that limits the dollar increase in the premium to the dollar increase in an individual's Social Security benefit. This provision applies to most beneficiaries who have their premiums deducted from their Social Security benefits, or roughly 70 percent of Part B enrollees."

So if your January cost-of-living adjustment raises your benefit by more than $6.60 a month, the full premium increase simply comes out of the raise and your net deposit still goes up. If a very small COLA ever raised a benefit by less than the premium increase, the premium for that person would be capped at the raise. The 2027 COLA is announced in October, when the September inflation figures are published, so by the time CMS sets the premium both halves of the equation are known.

The report is equally clear about who is not protected. Footnote 56: "About 30 percent of Part B enrollees are not eligible for the hold-harmless provision. This group consists of new enrollees during the year, enrollees who do not receive Social Security benefit checks, enrollees with high incomes who are subject to the income-related premium adjustment, and dual Medicare-Medicaid beneficiaries." If you are turning 65 in 2027, paying Part B by bank draft because you have not claimed Social Security yet, or paying IRMAA, the whole increase is yours.

The 2027 IRMAA surcharges, projected

The income-related premium is a percentage of program cost, not a fixed dollar amount, so when the standard premium rises the surcharges rise with it. Table V.E3 of the report projects the 2027 adjustment amounts alongside the 2026 ones. What the report does not project is the income thresholds; the Trustees note only that "in 2026 the initial threshold is $109,000 for an individual tax return and $218,000 for a joint return," and that the thresholds are indexed. CMS publishes the 2027 lines with the premium.

Source: 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, Table V.E3 (intermediate estimates). Totals add the projected $209.50 standard premium; the table's 50% row rounds to $209.40. Part D carries its own income-related amounts, not shown.

The timing point is the one Mesa County households miss. The 2027 premium is judged on your 2025 tax return, filed this past spring. If 2025 was the year you sold a rental, took a large IRA withdrawal or did a Roth conversion, the letter arrives in late 2026 and applies all of 2027. The appeal, if you have one, is for a life-changing event such as retirement, not for a one-time gain; our IRMAA post walks through the tiers and this one covers the form.

What Mesa County does with a number that is not final

The CMS enrollment file for June 2026 counts 41,709 Medicare beneficiaries in Mesa County: 22,554 in Original Medicare and 19,155 in Medicare Advantage and other plans. Every one of them pays the Part B premium. That is the fact that makes the missing final figure less important than it feels. Whether you keep a supplement, keep your Advantage plan, or move between them during Open Enrollment, Part B costs the same $209.50 or so, and it does not enter the comparison at all.

What does enter it is everything else on the cost sheet. Three practical points:

• If your Advantage plan is being discontinued for 2027, the Part B premium continues no matter what you do, and if you do nothing you land in Original Medicare paying $209.50 a month with no cap on the other 20%. That default is priced here.
• If you are weighing a plan with a Part B giveback, know what it is: the plan pays part of your Part B premium, reducing the amount withheld from Social Security. It is a plan benefit, not a Medicare discount, and a plan that returns part of the premium while excluding your cardiologist is not a saving. The mechanics are here.
• If you are delaying Part B past 65 without employer coverage, the late penalty is a percentage of the standard premium for as long as you have Part B, so every increase in the premium raises the penalty with it. How the penalty is figured.

What I would do

Put $209.50 in the 2027 budget now, per person, and treat anything lower in November as found money. Add the $292 deductible if you are on Plan G or Plan N. Then stop thinking about Part B and spend the effort where the dollars actually move: read the Annual Notice of Change that arrived this month, check that your doctors at St. Mary's or Community Hospital are in the 2027 directory of any plan you are considering, and run your prescriptions through the 2027 formulary. In a county where 26.6% of adults have high blood pressure and 8.1% have diabetes, a formulary tier change costs more than a $6.60 premium increase ever will.

And note the date the report gives for the hospital trust fund: "projected to become depleted in the second quarter of 2033, one quarter earlier than projected in last year's report." That is not a 2027 problem and it is not a reason to change a plan. It is the reason Part B estimates keep climbing, and why a premium in the $224 range is already on the table for 2028 in the same report.

How we know all this: the Medicare On Main Data Desk frames every article with public data — here, the 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds (section III.C2 for the 2027 premium estimate and the hold-harmless description, footnote 56 for who is excluded, Tables V.E1, V.E2 and V.E3 for the projected 2027 cost-sharing, premium and income-related amounts, and section II for the trust fund date), quoted as published; the 2023, 2024 and 2025 Trustees Reports for the prior one-year estimates; the CMS fact sheet of November 14, 2025 for the 2026 Part A and Part B amounts; the CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment file for Mesa County (June 2026); and CDC PLACES county data (2023). Every 2027 Part A and Part B figure is an estimate until CMS publishes the final amounts. No plan, carrier or product is named or recommended. This is education, not advice; confirm plans, costs and eligibility with a licensed agent or Medicare.gov. We take no payment from any carrier to feature a plan.